Report released by RE/MAX Canada
While detached housing values show substantial year-over-year gains in the first half of 2022, successive increases to the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) overnight rate put a damper on price appreciation in the second quarter of the year in both the Greater Toronto and Vancouver Areas, according to a report released today by RE/MAX Canada.
To illustrate, the 2022 RE/MAX Hot Pocket Communities Report compared market activity in the first and second quarter of 2022 in terms of unit sales and prices, analyzing 60 Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) districts, 16 regions within the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), and six areas in the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB). In the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the Central and West End of the 416 held up relatively well in terms of average price while Durham, Peel, York, Halton and Dufferin surrendered some of the staggering gains realized in recent years. Preliminary estimates of Q2 median prices in Greater Vancouver’s Squamish area and the Sunshine Coast were comparable to first quarter figures, while West Vancouver and Vancouver West/Howe Sound reported moderate increases.
“Buyer sentiment changed virtually overnight as growing geopolitical concerns and spiralling inflation destabilized global markets, leaving the Bank of Canada little option but to raise interest rates,” says Christopher Alexander, President, RE/MAX Canada. “Those fast and furious incremental increases placed downward pressure on housing sales and prices, improving affordability on one hand, but eroding it on the other.”
RE/MAX found that second quarter values in the GTA were 10 to 15 per cent below Q1 levels in Durham (-14.6 per cent), York (-12.9 per cent), Halton (-12.7 per cent), Dufferin (-12 per cent) and Peel (-11.2 per cent). Just 15 per cent of GTA markets noted an uptick in average price in the second quarter of the compared to the heated first. Five of those markets are located in the central core, including Dufferin Grove, Little Portugal, Trinity-Bellwoods, Palmerston-Little Italy and Kensington-Chinatown (C01); Yonge-St. Clair, Casa Loma, Wychwood and the Annex (C02); Forest Hill South, Oakwood-Vaughan, Humewood-Cedarvale and Yonge-Eglinton (C03); Mount Pleasant East and West (C10); and Leaside and Thorncliffe Park(C11). Three are in the West End, including High Park North, Junction Area, Runnymede-Bloor West Village, Lambton-Baby Point, Dovercourt-Wallace, Emerson and Junction (W02); Stonegate-Queensway(W07); and Islington City Centre, West Etobicoke, West Mall, Markland Wood, Eringate-Centennial-West Deane, Princess, Rosethorn Edenbridge, Humber Valley, Kingsway South (W08). One market that experienced price growth is located the East End – South Riverdale, Greenwood-Coxwell, Blake-Jones and North Riverdale (E01).
“Given that the core has traditionally been more resilient, bolstered by strong demand, a finite supply of homes available for sale, higher household incomes, and greater equity at the top end of the market, the results are not unexpected,” says Alexander. “The price softening was clearly more evident in suburban areas and the outer perimeters of the 416, most of which experienced strong upward momentum during the height of the pandemic as buyers sought to leave the city.”
Core markets in Vancouver West and West Vancouver/Howe Sound also bucked the downward price trend in in terms of preliminary estimates of Q2 median values, posting increases of 2.4 per cent and just over eight per cent respectively. Squamish and the Sunshine Coast also held steady, with no change reported between the first and second quarters. Seventy-five per cent of markets in Greater Vancouver, however, experienced a downturn in Q2 median values, coming off peak levels reported in the first quarter of the year. Most of the declines reported were below 10 per cent, with one outlier – Whistler/Pemberton, which fell by just over 16 per cent ($3,020,000 vs. $3,622,500). Given fewer sales and the types of detached properties in that particular market, an increase in the number of homes sold at lower price points could drag the median price down. In the Fraser Valley, percentage declines in average price ranged from a low of just over three per cent in Langley to a high of close to 13 per cent in Delta – North between the first and second quarter.